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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 40

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP