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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 14-R.Wright punts 64 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to MIN 48 for 35 yards (83-J.Nailor). MIN-29-K.Boyd was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP