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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model