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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 46 for no gain (1-J.Okudah, 44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.36 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model