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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 23

Detroit Lions 28 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.09 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model