4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model