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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 7-L.Fournette to SF 33 for 5 yards (1-J.Ward). 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model