Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 35

(11:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to SF 48 for 20 yards (31-T.Gipson). 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.08 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP