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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left guard to SF 37 for 2 yards (91-A.Armstead; 96-T.McGill).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model