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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans (95-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model