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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Johnson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Jennings (94-C.Nassib).

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model