Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to TB 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 30 for 11 yards (44-K.Juszczyk). FUMBLES (44-K.Juszczyk), ball out of bounds at TB 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.19 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model