Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(4:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.41 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model