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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model