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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton; 53-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model