Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 3

(1:22) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-57-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model