Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 34 for 8 yards (28-C.Washington). ARI-28-C.Washington was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model