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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 34

Denver Broncos 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model