Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(9:09) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 31 for 8 yards (28-C.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model