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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model