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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 4

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP