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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 70-D.Forbes reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard to BAL 7 for 2 yards (18-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model