4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.94 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model