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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Elliott), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-9-J.Tucker at BAL 48.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model