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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 37
Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3
What Actually Happened
(7:28) 7-J.Brissett left guard to BAL 34 for 3 yards (18-R.Smith).
The Three Options
GO
+1.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
KICK
-0.08 EP
- 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
