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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model