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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to TB 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 5 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither, 17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model