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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP