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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 4-D.Chrisman punts 46 yards to TB 2, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.22 EP
PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP