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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to CIN 38, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 89, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP