Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(4:07) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 41 for 9 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model