4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model