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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:53) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to JAX 14, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-25-N.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model