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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model