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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model