Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 27 for 16 yards (42-A.Wingard). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model