4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 10

Houston Texans 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model