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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +0.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model