Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(8:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-K.Toney to KC 40 for 3 yards (22-W.Redmond).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.35 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model