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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to LA 13 for 4 yards (92-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model