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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:51) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model