Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 33, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (11-R.Dixon). PENALTY on LA-21-R.Yeast, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.70 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model