Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(10:52) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-K.Nixon to GB 32 for 19 yards (42-M.Orzech, 41-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model