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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LA 5, Center-56-J.Coco. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 13 for 8 yards (84-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model