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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 12 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to GB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model