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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to LA 1 for 3 yards (91-G.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.62 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model