4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model