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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 40

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NYG 3, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-47-K.Hudson.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP