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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 35

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-R.James to WAS 24 for 11 yards (20-B.McCain; 29-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model