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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 64

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 25 for 9 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -2.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model